Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

Kram, T., Morita, T., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Roehrl, R.A., Rooijen, S. van, Sankovski, A., & Vries, B. de (2000). Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-00-022. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 63:335-371 [2000].

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Abstract

This article presents a set of 30 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios developed by six modeling teams. The scenarios describe trajectories up to 2100 for four world regions. Today the distribution of both income and GHG emissions is very unbalanced between various world regions. Furthermore, the relative importance of individual gases and sources of emissions differs from region to region. A feature shared by all scenarios is higher growth rates of population, income, and GHG emissions in the current developing countries (DEV) than in industrialized countries (IND). Today the DEV regions account for about 46% of all emissions, but by 2100 they will contribute 67-76% of the global total. By that same year the total income generated in the DEV regions will reach 58-71%, from only 16% in 1990. As a result of these two developments, GHG per unit of income converges over time. Carbon emitted from fossil fuels remains the primary source of GHG emissions over the next century; by 2100 CO2 will make up 70-80% of total GHG emissions. The role of sulfur warrants special attention. Contrary to many earlier studies, all scenarios presented assume that sulfur emissions are controlled in all regions sooner or later, and to various degrees. As sulfur plays a role in the cooling of the atmosphere through formation of sulfate aerosols, this abatement constitutes a relative local warming effect. The degree of sulfur emissions is already observed in the IND regions, and is also expected in Asia after an initial rise.

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