On Decarbonization: Historically and Perspectively

Marchetti, C. (2005). On Decarbonization: Historically and Perspectively. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-05-005

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Abstract

The possibility that CO2 emitted as a consequence of burning fossil fuels may have an impact on climate stimulated a lot of research on the evolution of the emissions and the possibility of remedies.

Here we analyze first the evolution of CO2 emission historically, by looking at the mix and quantity of fuels used. This mix evolves from wood to nuclear energies with an intermezzo of coal, oil and gas, the fossils. The intermezzo lasts about 400 years.

These fuels are made of carbon and hydrogen in different proportion and we have discovered that the ratio evolves in favor of hydrogen following a simple logistic for more than 200 years, formally pointing to a pure hydrogen economy for the end of this century.

That fact that hydrogen has to emerge as the central fuel is shown here to evolve out of the history of fuels consumption. Nuclear appears to have the quintessential characteristics to be the primary energy source.

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