Influence of Structural Change in GHG Emissions on Total Uncertainty

Lesiv, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9846-3342 (2012). Influence of Structural Change in GHG Emissions on Total Uncertainty. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-12-018

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Abstract

It is important to understand the change in uncertainty in reporting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to improve the communication of uncertainty and to facilitate the setting of emission targets. Uncertainty in GHG emissions varies over time due to the effects of learning, as well as structural change. This report provides examples of change in uncertainty due to structural change in GHG emissions considering EUs "20-20-20" targets. We estimate uncertainty for the year 2020 for various scenarios of energy pathways assuming today's knowledge. We apply an emissions-change-uncertainty analysis technique (called Und&VT) developed in IIASA to calculate modified emission targets for the EU.

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