Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond

Frank, A.B., Goud Collins, M., Clegg, M., Dieckmann, U. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7089-0393, Kremenyuk, V.A., Kryazhimskiy, A.V., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Levin, S.A., Lo, A., Ramalingam, B., Ramo, J., Roy, S., Saari, D., Shtauber, Z., Sigmund, K., Tepperman, J., Thurner, S., Yiwei, W., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2012). Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-12-010

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Abstract

The world today is increasingly confronted with systemic threats and challenges, in which femtorisks - small-scale dangers that are inherent to system structures and function and which pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks - can build in consequence, spreading uncontrollably like epidemics in both natural and social systems in such diverse areas as ecology, epidemiology, finance, the Internet, terrorism, and international relations. They have been successfully modeled in ecology in the context of complex adaptive systems: systems made up of individual agents, whose interactions have macroscopic consequences that feed back to influence individual behavior. While acknowledging challenges, this paper argues for the value of applying to societal systems the approaches that natural scientists have developed in quantifying and modeling biological interactions and ecosystems.

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