Demographic and Human Capital Heterogeneity in Selected Provinces of Turkey: A Scenario Analysis Using the Multi-dimensional Population Projection Model

Yucesahin, M.M. & K.C., S. (2013). Demographic and Human Capital Heterogeneity in Selected Provinces of Turkey: A Scenario Analysis Using the Multi-dimensional Population Projection Model. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-009

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Abstract

Turkey is a geographically diverse country and two important components of that diversity are demography and education levels. Regions of the country vary markedly in the age structure of the population and even more conspicuously in such characteristics as fertility, mortality, and migration and the level of educational attainment. The purpose of this study is mainly to explore the effect of various demographic and education scenarios in the size and the structure of the population in five selected provinces that are representative of four fertility regions of Turkey. Three scenarios were defined namely: "Euro" in which Turkey joins European Union, "Medium" as a continuation of trend, and "3-Child" in which Turkey becomes more conservative. Based on our knowledge about the past and expectation in the future for each scenario, we defined set of assumptions for fertility, mortality, migration, and education and these assumptions were implemented in a multi-state population projection model to project the population by age, sex and educational attainment in five selected provinces from 2010 to 2050. Under all scenarios, population in the five provinces will grow between 2010 and 2050. Under Euro and Medium scenario, the population of children will diminish and the population of elderly and those in the age-group 15-64 will increase in all scenario. In terms of education, as expected a rapid transformation will take place under Euro scenarios with more homogenous and higher level of human capital across Turkey, whereas, under 3-Child scenario Turkey will continue to be a heterogeneous society with a lower level of human capital. The result of this exercise reveals the extent to which Turkey's population can evolve in the future and provides policy makers and planners with a tool to look into the future and test the implication of certain policies and expectations on the development of population.

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