Advanced Stochastic Optimization Modeling of the Water-energy-food Nexus for Robust Energy and Agricultural Development: Coal Mining Industry in Shanxi province, China

Gao, J., Sun, C., Xiangyang, X., Cao, G.-Y., Yermoliev, Y., Ermolieva, T., Mosnier, A., & Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443 (2015). Advanced Stochastic Optimization Modeling of the Water-energy-food Nexus for Robust Energy and Agricultural Development: Coal Mining Industry in Shanxi province, China. In: Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria.

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Abstract

In this presentation, we discuss a modeling framework able to carry out an integrated systems analysis of interdependent energy-food-water-environmental systems while accounting for the competition to those systems posed by restricted natural resources under inherent uncertainties and systemic risks. The case study focuses on developments of coal industry in water-scarce regions of China. Coal is the main energy source in China responsible for country’s energy security. However, coal-based industries consume large quantities of water, which exacerbates the problem of water scarcity. The model accounts for water consumption by various coal mining, processing, and conversion technologies, as well as water and land requirements by different crops and management systems. Uncertain water supply and demand require robust solutions that would ensure demand-production balances and other (environmental, social) constraints in all scenarios. The model derives robust interdependent strategic and adaptive decisions using the “public-private partnership” principle. Strategic long-term decisions comprise the choice of coal-related technologies, land allocation, crop portfolio, and management technologies, while adaptive decisions concern trade and water management. Systemic risks and energy-food-water security considerations are characterized by quantile-based indicators arising due to systemic interdependencies among the systems and decisions of various stakeholders and potential adversaries. Robust solutions provide insights into how to develop and coordinate, in a sustainable way, the complex linkages and trade-offs, at spatial and temporal scales, between energy, agriculture, and water sectors, as well as how to manage potential systemic risks inherent to them. The model explores new coherent energy-food-water-environmental policies accounting for local-global interdependencies induced by national-international trade, as well as self-sufficient local solutions.

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