Spatial Analysis of Weather-induced Annual and Decadal Average Yield Variability as Modeled by EPIC for Rain-fed Wheat in Europe

Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Schmid, E., Schwartz, A.., Azevedo, L., & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2016). Spatial Analysis of Weather-induced Annual and Decadal Average Yield Variability as Modeled by EPIC for Rain-fed Wheat in Europe. In: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2016, 17–22 April 2016, Vienna, Austria.

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Abstract

In our analysis we evaluate the accuracy of near-term(decadal) average crop yield assessments as supported by the biophysical crop growth model EPIC. A spatial assessment of averages and variability has clear practical implications for agricultural producers and investors concerned with an estimation of the basic stochastic characteristics of a crop yield distribution.
As a reliable weather projection for a time period of several years will apparently remain a challenge in the near future, we have employed the existing gridded datasets on historical weather as a best proxy for the current climate. Based on different weather inputs to EPIC, we analyzed the model runs for the rain-fed wheat for 1968-2007 employing AgGRID/GGCMI simulations using harmonized inputs and assumptions (weather datasets: GRASP and Princeton).
We have explored the variability of historical ten-year yield averages in the past forty years as modeled by the EPIC model, and found that generally the ten-year average yield variability is less than 20% ((max-min)/average), whereas there are mid/low yielding areas with a higher ten-years average variability of 20-50%. The location of these spots of high variability differs between distinctive model-weather setups.
Assuming that historical weather can be used as a proxy of the weather in the next ten years, a best possible EPIC-based assessment of a ten-year average yield is a range of 20% width ((max-min)/average). For some mid/low productive areas the range is up to 50% wide.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Additional Information:	CL3.04: Modelling climate impacts: Intercomparison, validation, and improvement of impact models. Poster Session: 17:30-19:00 / Hall A
Research Programs:	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	11 Apr 2016 08:55
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:26
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12566

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