Technology life–cycles and business decisions

Lee, T.H. & Nakicenovic, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 (1988). Technology life–cycles and business decisions. International Journal of Technology Management 3 (4) 411-426. 10.1504/IJTM.1988.025978.

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Abstract

Although the general phenomena of technology life–cycle have been known for a long time, quantitative description is still controversial. In the majority of cases, an S–curve fits the phenomena well. There are cases, however, that deviate from S–curves significantly. There is also the question of whether in real life the curve is as symmetrical as a pure S–curve. In real–life business situations, these arguments are rather academic. This paper shows that the life–cycle concept can he useful to decision–making in spite of the imperfect status. The authors first show that there may he more than one attribute of a technology that follows the S–pattern. They then point out the danger of using one attribute alone. The authors also illustrate the usefulness of the concept for contingency planning. and the phenomenon of multiple S–curves.

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