A collaborative expert system for group decision making in public policy

Wildemeersch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6660-2712, Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, & Ilmola, Leena (2017). A collaborative expert system for group decision making in public policy. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-17-011

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Abstract

In the policy arena, there is high pressure to provide right and quick decisions for problems that are often poorly defined. There is hence an urgent need to support stakeholders in establishing a shared understanding of policy problems and to assist them in the design of potential solutions. Here we propose a formal methodology based on the construction and analysis of system maps, i.e., a graphical representation of the complex interdependencies of all relevant factors that affect the problem under study. Owing to their collaborative design, system maps provide a transparent tool with broad stakeholder acceptance to analyze ill-defined problems in a formal way. The construction of system maps involves expert elicitation to define system components, system boundaries, and interactions between system components, whereas the dynamical system behavior can be approximated by means of system dynamics. Although there is great value in the construction of the system map to enhance the understanding of the problem scenario, we consider this as an intermediate step. The final target is to present the full life-cycle of system maps and assist decision-makers in the entire decision-making process through the construction and analysis of system maps, i.e., from the understanding of the system behavior, to the definition of objectives and constraints, and finally the presentation of feasible solutions. System maps provides us with an effective framework to collect information dispersed over the experts, facilitate mediation, and analyze formally potential pathway solutions, meeting different criteria of optimality.

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