The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Zhang, R., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, & Hanaoka, T. (2018). The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals. Environmental Research Letters 13 (5) e054008. 10.1088/1748-9326/aabb0d.

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Abstract

The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005–2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 °C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

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