Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Bertram, C., Huppmann, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389, Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., et al. (2021). Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot. Nature Climate Change 11 1063-1069. 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2.

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Abstract

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	30 Nov 2021 07:33
Last Modified:	18 Apr 2024 11:28
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17678

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