An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives

Schleussner, C.-F., Ganti, G., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, & Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X (2022). An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives. Communications Earth & Environment 3 e135. 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w.

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Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets the objectives of global climate ambition as expressed in itslong-term temperature goal and mitigation goal. The scientific community has explored thecharacteristics of greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways in line with the ParisAgreement. However, when categorizing such pathways, the focus has been put on thetemperature outcome and not on emission reduction objectives. Here we propose a pathwayclassification that aims to comprehensively reflect the climate criteria set out in the ParisAgreement. We show how such an approach allows for a fully consistent interpretation of theAgreement. For Paris Agreement compatible pathways, we report net zero CO2 and greenhousegas emissions around 2050 and 2065, respectively. We illustrate how pathway designcriteria not rooted in the Paris Agreement, such as the 2100 temperature level, result inscenario outcomes wherein about 6 - 24% higher deployment (interquartile range) of carbondioxide removal is observed.

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