Toward carbon neutrality before 2060: Trajectory and technical mitigation potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese agriculture

Chen, M., Cui, Y., Jiang, S., & Forsell, N. (2022). Toward carbon neutrality before 2060: Trajectory and technical mitigation potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese agriculture. Journal of Cleaner Production 368 e133186. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133186.

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Abstract

In 2020, China announced that it aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Despite the recognition of agriculture's importance in emission mitigation strategies, assessing the non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials from this sector remains technically and conceptually challenging. This study developed a bottom-up inventory-based model (the Agriculture-induced non-CO2 GreenHouse Gases INVentory model) to provide region-specific long-term projections (to 2060) of non-CO2 GHG emissions (including methane and nitrous oxide) from the Chinese agricultural sector. Seventeen production-side technologies were identified that could reduce on-farm emissions, and their mitigation potentials by 2060 were evaluated. Results showed that agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions rose by 34% from 1980 to 2018, and they are projected to increase further by 33% to reach 1153 MtCO2-eq yr−1 by 2060. Implementing selected technological adaptations could lead to peak agricultural emissions before 2030 and then reduce them by 32%–50% by 2060. The most effective mitigation measures include feed supplements, feed quality improvements, slow-release fertilizers, and improved water management for paddy fields and uplands. All six regions of China will see a gradual increase in agricultural emissions. South Central China and Southwest China have the largest shares of total national emissions and the greatest mitigation potentials. However, technology adoption faces a series of socio-economic obstacles such as the high cost of technology promotion, smaller farm sizes, farmers' aversion to risk, and a complex set of objectives for agriculture.

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