Futures of shipping in the Arctic until 2050

Erokhin, D., Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, & Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768 (2022). Futures of shipping in the Arctic until 2050. In: Annual International Symposium on Foresight as part of the 9th Annual International Conference on Social Sciences, 25 – 28 July 2022, Athens.

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Abstract

The Arctic has an enormous economic potential as a storehouse of mineral resources and a provider of shorter and more cost-effective transportation between Europe and Asia. Therefore, it is an essential strategic element of domestic and foreign policies of all Arctic states. In addition, there is an increasing economic interest in the region on the part of non-Arctic states. However, the future of the Arctic remains highly uncertain. To help decision-makers deal with this high level of uncertainty, we have launched the “Emerging trade routes between Europe and Asia” scenario building project. In this paper, we present the resulting alternative narratives describing plausible futures of shipping in the Arctic until 2050: (i) Arctic as a Global Resource Base, (ii) Arctic as a Global Transportation Route, (iii) Arctic as an Abandoned Land, (iv) Arctic as a Sanctuary, and (v) Arctic as a Shortcut. These crossscale consistent plausible narratives have been co-created together with representatives of policy, business, and academic communities and represent different volumes of Arctic shipping: high volume of destination and low volume of transit shipping; high volume of destination and transit shipping; low volume of destination and transit shipping; and low volume of destination and high volume of transit shipping. The process of scenario building has included three major steps consistent with the state-of-the-art in scenario building methodology: analysis of key factors, delineation of uncertainty space, assembly of scenarios. Key factors that determine these scenarios include infrastructure development, navigation conditions, global and regional governance, regulatory and financial barriers, advanced technologies, and decarbonization. The scenarios can inform the development of short-, medium-, and long-term policy measures aimed at the search of common interests and fostering cooperation in the Arctic.

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