Climate change adaptation through robust land use planning: two-stage stochastic optimization for risk-informed decision making

Ermolieva, T., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Kahil, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7812-5271, Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Skalský, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Ermoliev, Y., Knopov, P., Borodina, O., et al. (2022). Climate change adaptation through robust land use planning: two-stage stochastic optimization for risk-informed decision making. In: Mathematical modeling, optimization and information technologies", international scientific conference. pp. 52-56 CEP USM. ISBN 978-9975-159-03-6

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Abstract

Uncertainty and variability of climate changes are key challenges for adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, the decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex-ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed; and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative exante and adaptive ex-post decisions within a single model. The paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning in the condition of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between the decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and uncertainty with perspectives of learning about uncertainty. The two-stage anticipative and adaptive risk-informed decision-making with safety constraints induces risk aversion characterized by quantile-based Value-atRisk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex-ante and ex-post costs and the shape of uncertainty 61 determines the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex-ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, land management technologies, and natural resource utilization.

Item Type:	Book Section
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Water Security (WAT)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	28 Nov 2022 11:25
Last Modified:	28 Nov 2022 11:25
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18427

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