Italy’s populaton prospects: future scenarios for the 21st century

Reiter, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1485-3851, Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, & Testa, M.R. (2022). Italy’s populaton prospects: future scenarios for the 21st century. Economia Italiana 3 15-58.

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Abstract

In Italy, very low fertility combined with very high life expectancy will have a tremendous impact on the labour market, the pension system, and health care provision in the coming decades. Knowing future population trends is essential for the Italian society to prepare for these changes. !e uncertainty about future trends in births and deaths has increased after COVID-19 and has made demographic projections more challenging. !e aim of this paper is to single out the future prospects of Italy’s population by comparing projections prepared by "ve di#erent organizations and to better understand how population statistics change when certain assumptions are made about the future course of fertility, mortality, and migration. While all organizations agree that Italy’s population will continue to decline in the future, the speed and extent of this decline as well as the resulting changes in the population age structure vary signi"cantly across the di#erent sets of projections and depend heavily on the di#erential underlying assumptions.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Social Cohesion, Health, and Wellbeing (SHAW)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	11 Apr 2023 09:07
Last Modified:	07 Jun 2024 08:09
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18709

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