A comprehensive model for promoting effective decision-making and sustained climate change stabilization for South Africa

Gomez Sanabria, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2317-3946 & Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135 (2023). A comprehensive model for promoting effective decision-making and sustained climate change stabilization for South Africa. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

Preview

Text Final_Report_SAFR.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial. Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

This assessment provides a quantification of the methane reduction potential from the organic (municipal) solid waste in South Africa. It quantifies the potential methane emission reductions by contrasting a Business-as-Usual scenario to three alternative future scenarios. One in which the focus is given to upgrade landfills, an additional one in which no further measures beyond current policy are taken and a third one in which all technical measures currently available to adopt circular waste management systems are implemented. The assessment is carried out at provincial level up to 2050 (5-years-step). The key findings are presented below:
The waste sector in South Africa is estimated to emit 312 kt of CH4, which corresponds to 8.7 Mt CO2eq when using a global warming potential (GWP) over 100 years. Although some provinces in South Africa have shown an improvement, if current waste management conditions are maintained into the future, it is expected that CH4 emissions will increase by 68% in 2050. Despite recent progress in the waste related political framework, there is a lack of implementation of existing policies.
Although upgrading landfills is an important measure to significantly reduce methane emissions in the provinces, without additional measures to divert organic waste from landfills, methane emissions are expected to increase. Landfill measures alone are not enough to bend the curve. If implemented, current waste policies will succeed in reducing methane emissions, however, further action could offer additional reductions in the waste sector.
Gauteng and Western Cape have been identified as the provinces with the highest contribution to methane emissions from waste. Interventions in these two provinces account for 50% of the methane reduction potential from waste in South Africa. Therefore, Western Cape and Gauteng could be prioritized as the main provinces to abate CH4 from waste in the country.
The cost associated with emission reductions depends on the level of ambition. Only upgrading the landfills (UPLF scenario) will result in the lowest methane abatement potential at low cost compared to the other scenarios. The Policy (POL) and the Maximum Technical Emission Reduction (MFR) scenarios offer higher methane abatement potentials but come at a higher marginal abatement cost. By 2050, the adoption of the UPLF scenario results in a reduction of 3.3 MtCO2e at a cost of 51 Euro/tonCO2e. POL and MFR scenarios have the potential to reduce 8.6MtCO2e and 12 MtCO2e at a marginal abatement cost of 105 Euro/tonCO2e and 359 Euro/tonCO2e, respectively.

Actions (login required)

View Item