Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles

Cui, J., Deng, O., Zheng, M., Zhang, X., Bian, Z., Pan, N., Tian, H., Xu, J., & Gu, B. (2024). Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles. Nature Communications 15 (1) e9185. 10.1038/s41467-024-53518-5.

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Abstract

Forests are invaluable natural resources that provide essential services to humanity. However, the effects of global warming on forest carbon and nitrogen cycling remain uncertain. Here we project a decrease in total nitrogen input and accumulation by 7 ± 2 and 28 ± 9 million tonnes (Tg), respectively, and an increase in reactive nitrogen losses to the environment by 9 ± 3 Tg for 2100 due to warming in a fossil-fueled society. This would compromise the global carbon sink capacity by 0.45 ± 0.14 billion tonnes annually. Furthermore, warming-induced inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles could widen the economic gap between the Global South and Global North. High-income countries are estimated to gain US$179 billion in benefits from forest assets under warming, while other regions could face net damages of US$31 billion. Implementing climate-smart forest management, such as comprehensive restoration and optimizing tree species composition, is imperative in the face of future climate change.

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