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Shindell, D. & Rogelj, J. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061
(2025).
Preserving carbon dioxide removal to serve critical needs.
Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02251-y.
(In Press)
Abstract
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is critical to most net-zero pathways, especially given challenges due to slow decarbonization, hard-to-abate (H2A) economic activities and non-CO2 GHGs. However, land-based CDR, which is the most widely deployed currently and in future projections, requires extensive land and water. Here we examine least-cost 1.5 °C overshoot pathways, finding that 78 of 81 scenarios would require all available sustainable CDR to compensate for H2A emissions and overshoot. Use of CDR to compensate for emissions from easier-to-decarbonize sectors such as electricity would leave less available to compensate for H2A emissions, increasing system-wide costs of net zero or rendering such goals impossible. Such usage, however, is allowed in many jurisdictions and is widespread in voluntary markets. We suggest that rapidly transitioning CDR usage to exclusively compensate for H2A emissions and overshoot is required to prevent lower costs for near-term actors leading to larger long-term system-wide costs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS) |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | Michaela Rossini |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Feb 2025 11:44 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Feb 2025 11:44 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20410 |
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