The warming effect of black carbon must be reassessed in light of observational constraints

Myhre, G., Samset, B.H., Stjern, C.W., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kramer, R., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Forster, P.M., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Shindell, D., Stier, P., & Watson-Parris, D. (2025). The warming effect of black carbon must be reassessed in light of observational constraints. Cell Reports Sustainability e100428. 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100428.

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Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols are generally thought to warm the climate. However, the magnitude of this warming remains highly uncertain due to limited knowledge of BC sources; optical properties; and atmospheric processes such as transport, removal, and cloud interactions. Here, we assess and constrain estimates of the historical warming influence of BC using recent observations and emission inventories. Based on simulations from four climate models, we show that the current global mean surface temperature change from anthropogenic BC due to aerosol-radiation interaction spans a factor of three—from +0.02 ± 0.02 K to +0.06 ± 0.05 K. Rapid atmospheric adjustments reduce the instantaneous radiative forcing by nearly 50% (multi-model mean), substantially lowering the net warming. Yet, recent satellite constraints suggest a stronger effect, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive reassessment of BC’s climate influence.

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