Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge

Zhu, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9360-6797, Qiu, C., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Ciais, P., Lamboll, R.D., Ballantyne, A., Chang, J., Chaudhary, N., Gallego-Sala, A.V., Guenet, B., Holden, J., Joos, F., Kleinen, T., Kwon, M.J., Melnikova, I., Müller, J., Page, S., Salmon, E., Schleussner, C.-F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8471-848X, Schurgers, Guy., et al. (2025). Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge. One Earth p. 101353. 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353. (In Press)

[thumbnail of 1-s2.0-S2590332225001794-main.pdf]
Preview
Text
1-s2.0-S2590332225001794-main.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (3MB) | Preview
Project: Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk, H2020 773421), Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939), Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687)

Abstract

Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22–48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16–60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: northern peatlands; carbon; greenhouse gases; temperature feedback; overshoot; climate change; land surface model; reduced-complexity earth system model
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Climate Impacts (ICI)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 03 Jul 2025 08:27
Last Modified: 03 Jul 2025 08:27
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20730

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item