Microelectronics and Unemployment in Austria

Dell'Mour, R., Fleissner, P., & Sint, P.P. (1982). Microelectronics and Unemployment in Austria. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-82-041

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Abstract

This paper presents the methodological background and some results of a study "Applications, Diffusion and Socio-Economic effects of Microelectronics in Austria", which was financed by the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research. The paper consists of two parts: (1) The description of the methodology how to measure the impact of technical change caused by microelectronics on the Austrian economy. For this purpose a mathematical simulation model was constructed which consists of an input-output-model, an econometric demand model and a model for linking technology and economy. (2) By means of socio.-political scenarios the simulation model was used to produce conditional forecasts for the years 1985 and 1990 for the main economic indicators. Some of the results, in particular unemployment figures, are presented.

Although the presented approach was developed for the analysis of microelectronics, a special type of technology, the method could easily be used for any other type of technological change, robots etc., if this technology can be explicitly connected with certain economic indicators, like productivity, manpower, material inputs and outputs.

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