Economic Coordination for Climate Policy: Optimizing Livestock Sector Emission Reduction Using Genetic Algorithms and Agent-Based Modeling in Quang Binh, Vietnam

Ngo, A.T., See, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2665-7065, & Van Mai, T. (2025). Economic Coordination for Climate Policy: Optimizing Livestock Sector Emission Reduction Using Genetic Algorithms and Agent-Based Modeling in Quang Binh, Vietnam. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 10.1007/s10666-025-10054-w. (In Press)

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Abstract

This study presents a spatially explicit optimization framework to support subnational climate policy in Vietnam's livestock sector. By integrating a genetic algorithm with district-level emissions modeling, we have identified cost-effective allocations of eight mitigation options in Quang Binh province to help meet the national methane reduction target of 12.39% by 2030. Drawing on livestock census data, IPCC emission factors, and region-specific marginal abatement costs (MACs), the model generates scenarios that achieve reductions of 13.9-29.3% in provincial GHG emissions. The most effective measures, which are biochar supplementation for cattle and silage feeding for buffaloes, not only deliver the greatest emission reductions at the lowest MACs, but also improve livestock productivity, offering strong economic co-benefits. Other interventions such as manure separation and expanded biogas systems also yield high mitigation potential, particularly when supported by carbon revenues or external incentives. With a net abatement cost of - 7.268 million USD and economic gains of 7.627 million USD under a carbon price of 5 USD/tCO(2)eq, our approach demonstrates how targeted, locally grounded strategies can align economic development with national climate goals. While simplified in terms of its behavioral assumptions, the model offers a practical, scalable tool for low-emission planning in data-constrained contexts and is transferable to other provinces under Vietnam's climate commitments.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Genetic algorithm, Greenhouse gases, Emission reduction, Agent-based model, Quang Binh, Vietnam
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability (NODES)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2025 07:02
Last Modified:	04 Aug 2025 07:02
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20796

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