Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable

Boas, I., Sterly, H., Farbotko, C., Hulme, M., Benveniste, H., Schewel, K.D., Bettini, G., Borderon, M., Hoffmann, R., van der Geest, K., Durand-Delacre, D., Selby, J., Wrathall, D.J., Baldwin, A., Benítez Cortés, A., Bukari, K.N,, Bunchuay-Peth, S., Capisani, S., Codjoe, S.N.A., Dahm, R., et al. (2025). Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable. Environmental Research Letters 10.1088/1748-9326/adfdfd. (In Press)

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Abstract

As climate change intensifies, scientific and policy discussions increasingly address questions of future habitability and potential population movements. In this perspective, we caution against premature or top-down characterizations of areas as uninhabitable, or portrayals of large-scale climate-induced displacement as inevitable—particularly when the perspectives and preferences of affected populations are excluded. While we recognize the importance of modelling and scenario-building to assess future risks, we argue that such efforts must be grounded in local realities and include diverse forms of knowledge.
Habitability is not determined by climate alone, but emerges from intersecting environmental, political, economic, and cultural dynamics—including governance, inequality, and historical injustice. Framings that do not consider this risk producing two problematic outcomes: first, by prematurely defining areas as uninhabitable, they may undermine the legitimacy of in-situ adaptation and the agency of affected communities; second, when modelling or the use of modelling results does not consider local context, it may inadvertently contribute to narratives portraying climate-induced mass displacement as inevitable, reinforcing deterministic understandings of migration and overlooking the complex drivers of mobility and immobility.
To counter these risks, we propose five guiding recommendations: (1) avoid declaring hard limits to habitability without inclusive, context-specific assessments; (2) treat model-based projections as possible, not predetermined futures; (3) reject simplistic global North/South assumptions in assessing vulnerability and mobility; (4) uphold people’s right to remain, alongside the right to move; and (5) prioritize investment in in-situ adaptation that addresses structural inequalities. These principles aim to inform more reflexive and justice-oriented approaches to climate mobility and habitability research—approaches that recognize lived experiences, engage diverse knowledge systems, and help secure equitable futures for those most exposed to environmental change.

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