Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down

Jiang, P., Purohit, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7265-6960, Xiang, X., Chen, Z., Bai, F., Zhao, X., Zhang, X., & Hu, J. (2025). Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 9 (1) e18. 10.1038/s41612-025-01289-1.

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Abstract

China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO 2 -eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO 2 — ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO 2 (1.8 Gt), NO x (3.7 Gt), and PM 2.5 (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions.

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