The Financial Toll of Climate-Induced Crop Losses

Lesk, C., Hwong, Y.L., & Kornhuber, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5466-2059 (2026). The Financial Toll of Climate-Induced Crop Losses. DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8148. In: EGU General Assembly 2026, 03 May - 08 May 2026, Vienna.

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Abstract

The detrimental impacts of climate change to global agriculture are well documented, but the financial consequences of these climate-driven crop losses remain underexplored. Here, we quantify the economic damages from heat and drought-induced crop losses in maize, wheat, and soybean using a statistical modeling approach and attribute them to individual emitters. Between 2000 and 2019, climate-induced yield impacts resulted in global economic losses totalling roughly $400 billion, corresponding to an average annual loss of about 0.06% of global GDP. Least-developed countries experienced GDP-normalized losses 2.5 times higher than those of rich nations (0.10% versus 0.04% of GDP). Aggregated over 2000–2019, CO2 emissions from the world’s richest 10% contributed to approximately $113 billion in financial losses from associated crop yield declines. This represents about 55% of the total economic damages across all income groups and is over eight times greater than the contribution from the poorest 50%. Attributing damages to the economic activities of Carbon Major companies, we estimate that their CO2 emissions caused about $170 billion in financial losses from associated agricultural yield declines. We also show that global annual losses could quadruple between 2019 and 2070 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), while a sustainable development pathway (SSP1-2.6) could avoid an estimated $40 billion of these damages. By linking climate-induced yield losses to financial outcomes, we provide a more tangible understanding of climate risks from food system impacts and strengthen the basis for loss and damage claims.

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