Underestimation of Future Agricultural Soil N 2 O Emissions and Abatement Needs

Lu, C., Li, L., Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Canadell, J.G., Liu, W., & Tian, H. (2026). Underestimation of Future Agricultural Soil N 2 O Emissions and Abatement Needs. Global Change Biology 32 (5) e70919. 10.1111/gcb.70919.

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Abstract

Agricultural soils are the largest human‐induced source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) due to the extensive fertilizer use in crop production. Despite progress made in global N 2 O budget accounting, using the IPCC‐derived static emission factors (EF) limits our capability to project future changes in agricultural N 2 O emissions and identify cost‐effective mitigation strategies. Here, we use a physics‐informed AI‐driven dynamic EF modeling framework to project direct agricultural soil N 2 O emissions induced by mineral fertilizer additions under various climate and nitrogen (N) regulation policy scenarios. Compared to projections based on static EF, our study yields higher future N 2 O emissions by 0.3–1.1 Tg N year −1 across scenarios by 2050, implying greater abatement needs to combat climate change. The gap between static and dynamic EF approaches is projected to widen to 29%–34% by mid‐century. Under moderate‐ to high‐ambition N regulation policies, we project that a 25% emission reduction can be reached before 2050, while a 45% reduction is only attainable under high‐ambition N policies and strong climate action. The potential for N 2 O mitigation due to a policy shift varies substantially among regions, with seven top source regions contributing 76%–87% of global N 2 O reduction. Adopting N 2 O reduction technologies in hotspot areas would significantly accelerate the timeline for achieving the 25% reduction goal. Improving fertilizer management on croplands can provide climate benefits comparable to, or even exceeding, those of enhancing soil carbon sequestration, particularly in regions with low nitrogen use efficiency. Our findings highlight the higher mitigation potential of targeting N 2 O emission hotpots and the urgency of implementing policy shifts.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	agricultural soil N2O emissions; climate change; dynamic vs. static emission factors; future projection; nitrogen regulation policy scenarios
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	18 May 2026 07:25
Last Modified:	18 May 2026 07:25
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21571

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