The Deviant Dynamics of Death in Heterogeneous Populations

Vaupel, J.W. & Yashin, A.I. (1983). The Deviant Dynamics of Death in Heterogeneous Populations. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-83-001

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Abstract

The members of most populations gradually die off or drop out: people die, machines wear out, residents move out, etc. In many such "aging" populations, some members are more likely to "die" than others. Standard analytical methods largely ignore this heterogeneity; the methods assume that all members of a population cohort at a given age face the same probability of death. This paper presents some mathematical methods for studying how the behavior over time of a heterogeneous cohort deviates from the behavior of the individuals that make up the cohort. The methods yield some startling results: individuals age faster than cohorts, eliminating a cause of death can decrease life expectancy, a cohort can suffer a higher death rate even though its members have lower death rates, and cohort death rates can be increasing even thought its members' death rates are decreasing.

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