National pathways of land-use CO₂ emissions in the 21st century

Zhang, D., Zheng, B., He, Y., Wang, T., Shrivastav, G., Ciais, P., & Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647 (2026). National pathways of land-use CO₂ emissions in the 21st century. Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-026-74836-w. (In Press)

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Abstract

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is a major source of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, yet projections remain scarce. Here, we use the reduced-complexity Earth system model OSCAR to generate national LULCC carbon emission trajectories through 2100, across 150 socioeconomic and policy-relevant scenarios. Deforestation and forest regrowth dominate variability in LULCC carbon emission, with policy timing and ambition exerting strong control. Ending gross deforestation by 2030 yields large, persistent removals (about −30 Pg C by 2100), whereas net forest area balance still emits 4–9 Pg C. The strongest sinks are projected to emerge in China and Indonesia, while Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo dominate global sources. The accompanying open dataset enables country-level scenario assembly and policy evaluation. Our findings underscore that early and ambitious land governance, particularly in tropical regions, is essential for transforming the land sector into a durable carbon sink aligned with global temperature goals.

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