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Liu, X., Yan, Y., Wu, X., Zhu, S., Zhao, Y., Ruan, Z., Xiao, Y., Meng, J., Huang, C. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8839-2478, Yan, G., & Dai, H.
(2026).
Accelerated pathways for China’s industrial decarbonization lower system costs and preserve the carbon budget.
Joule e102542. 10.1016/j.joule.2026.102542.
Abstract
China’s hard-to-abate (HtA) industries are critical to global climate goals but face carbon lock-in risks. This study models near-zero pathways for five key sectors to 2060, using a bottom-up optimization framework with policy-driven endogenous technological learning. We identify 2035–2040 as the critical window: accelerated deployment saves cumulative reductions of ∼50 Gt CO2 (10%–20% of the 1.5°C budget) and lowers the system costs by USD 1.8 trillion versus delayed action. Policy-driven learning rapidly improves the competitiveness of breakthrough technologies like green-hydrogen-based steelmaking, displacing reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS). Post-2035, over 88% of emissions cuts are achievable below USD 200/tCO2. Sectoral outcomes diverge with steel and aluminum leading in cost-effectiveness, petrochemicals facing higher costs, and cement needs demanding management. The transition reshapes energy use, which cuts final consumption by 34% by 2060 while raising electricity (4,304 TWh) and hydrogen demand (66 Mt). A timely policy is thus essential to unlock these cost-savings, offering globally relevant insights for HtA sectors.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | industrial decarbonization pathways, carbon budget, carbon mitigation, technology cost, energy consumption, China |
| Research Programs: | Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jul 2026 07:52 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Jul 2026 07:52 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21720 |
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