Smoking and Lung Cancer Prevalence: Slovakian Case Study

Rusnak, M., Yashin, A.I., & Merinska, I. (1986). Smoking and Lung Cancer Prevalence: Slovakian Case Study. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-86-012

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Abstract

In the first decade of this century lung cancer was an uncommon tumor. This is in sharp contrast to the late 1970s and early 1980s:

-- In 1977 the World Health Organization reported that in many countries death rates were either stationary or declining in both males and females, for cancers other than lung. The USA, Australia, Austria, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, and others were among the affected countries.

-- In 1979 the American Cancer Society reported that the overall incidence of cancer had decreased slightly in the past 25 years and that there was an increased death rate in men, which was mainly the result of lung cancer.

-- In 1982 the American Cancer Society reported, "Lung cancer rates are indeed the monster of cancer statistics, causing the overall cancer death rate to increase over 18 years from 157.0 to 169.0 per 100,000 persons".

Most industrialized countries have recorded similar increases of over 100% incidence in neoplasms of the lung between 1950 and 1964. As a result of intensive epidemiological research carried out in this field during the last 20 years, it is now generally accepted that cancer of the lung is a disease of modern civilization and, in large part, preventable. The incidence of lung neoplasms correlates directly with population density, urbanization, industrialization, tobacco smoking, and even with the registration of automobiles. All these facts suggest that we are facing a real epidemic of lung cancer. The counteractions of health care systems are well known but we are interested in the future development of this process and how it would affect the population in forthcoming years. How effective could preventive campaigns be, assuming different approaches? Where to concentrate preventive efforts -- in the younger or in the older part of the population? Many scientists are looking for the answers to such questions. To develop a mathematical description of processes in the population suffering from the spread of lung cancer may help answer some of these questions and forecast future development. The descriptive model, being realized on a digital computer, could be of substantial help to health care managers, specialists in epidemiology, other physicians, and even to nonphysicians with interests in this field.

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