Policy Exercises

Toth, F.L. (1988). Policy Exercises. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-89-002. Reprinted from Simulation & Games, 19(3):235-276 [September 1988].

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Abstract

The authors approach has been to write a set of "future histories" and in the process to examine alternative paths of development. Briefly, a future history is a record, developed by a group workers, that looks back to the present from a specified future time. The record includes (a) trends of indicators and phenomena relevant to the problem at hand, (b) policy initiatives that would have been taken in response to expected trends, and (c) expectations of policy consequences and realized social results. The process of preparing to write future histories should enable an "ordering of nightmares" related to the expected environmental changes. A comparison of several completed ones should permit an evaluation of what policy thrusts to pursue in the real world.

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