Comparison of RAINS Lake Module with MAGIC-Model Simulations and Paleolimnological Records

Forsius, M. (1989). Comparison of RAINS Lake Module with MAGIC-Model Simulations and Paleolimnological Records. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-89-012

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Abstract

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is developing a simulation model (RAINS) which can be used by decision makers to evaluate policies for emission control in Europe. As part of this task a simple dynamic model has been developed for describing the processes leading to acidification of surface waters.

In this paper some aspects of the uncertainty incorporated in the RAINS Lake Module (RLM) are evaluated. Simulation results of this lake model are compared with results from a more complicated acidification model (MAGIC), using data from four Finnish forest lake catchment^. A Monte Carlo parameter estimation procedure is used in both models to evaluate the uncertainty of the model predictions. The simulation results are also compared with historical pH and alkalinity values reconstructed from diatom remains in the lake sediments.

RLM applied to the independent lake data yielded pH and alkalinity reconstructions that are probably within the range of uncertainties inherent in both this model and the diatom method. The models generally predicted similar changes in lake acidity, when MAGIC was run with initially calibrated input values from RLM. Some problems, however, occurred in the MAGIC applications using these RLM input values.

The use of the Monte Carlo testing procedure on both models showed that large differences in the simulated acidification path of the lakes were obtained when sensitive model parameters were randomly changed. A fairly large number of allowable outcome were still reproduced in both RLM and MAGIC applications.

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