Fail-Safe vs. Safe-Fail Catastrophes

Jones, D.D., Holling, C.S., & Peterman, R. (1975). Fail-Safe vs. Safe-Fail Catastrophes. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-75-093

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Abstract

This paper is meant to serve two purposes. First, to extend the usefulness of catastrophe theory as a tool to aid our perception of a partially known world. This theory is a newly emerged branch of topology and, as such, begins to fill a large void in our arsenal of qualitative analytical tools. It is not appropriate for all important and interesting situations, particularly those requiring precise numerical results. But it is hoped that it can provide an important missing element for our environmental management tool kit.

The second purpose is to report upon some deliberations precipitated by a recent paper of Beer and Casti (1975). We shall follow, to some degree, their development. We shall also borrow some of their examples and terminology in order to emphasize some fundamentally different strategies for managing unexpected events.

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