Long-Term Normative Model of Development: Methodological Aspects

Kulikowski, R. (1976). Long-Term Normative Model of Development: Methodological Aspects. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-76-018

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Abstract

Few academic discussions in recent years have become as controversial as those regarding the application of computer-operated mathematical models which forecast the future of mankind.

It has been argued, for example, that the modeling methodology usually takes a descriptive, i.e. passive, attitude with regard to global development processes. As a result, even slight tendencies towards a crisis may appear as if they had been determined, in which case the whole future development appears predestined and "doomsday" seems inevitable. It has also been argued that descriptive models do not take into account the changes in the system of socio-economic values and development goals, which have a direct effect on the consumption structure, allocation of resources, prices, fertility, and the growth of population, etc. Since, in descriptive models, decisions cannot be introduced explicitly one cannot find out what can be done when the crisis is in sight and what chances one has in trying to avoid or reduce the effects of the crisis. It was proposed that, in order to have a realistic global development model, the normative rather than descriptive approach should be used.

The approach used in this paper can be called "optimistic" (compared to the approaches used in the so called "Doomsday Models") in the sense that it relys on the realistic assumption that mankind will choose the policy of international cooperation and will optimize the allocation of scarce resources rather than follow the passive attitude and apathy when confronted with a crisis or catastrophe. The increase in international cooperation, especially after the Helsinki Peace Conference, indicates that such a strategy is feasible.

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