Emission Scenarios for Methane and Nitrous Oxides from the Agricultural Sector in the EU-25

Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135, Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, & Bertok, I. (2006). Emission Scenarios for Methane and Nitrous Oxides from the Agricultural Sector in the EU-25. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-06-019

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Abstract

This report presents three emission scenarios of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from the agricultural sector of the EU-25 until 2020. These scenarios explore the likely implications of changes in agricultural production due to the

- implementations of the EU Agenda 2000 CAP Reform of 1999 and the EU Nitrates Directive of 1991 (as used for the analyses of the EU Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme),

- the implementation of the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and from anticipated impacts on fertilizer use of the reform of the EU sugar sector agreed in 2005,

- and compare them with the agricultural projections provided by the EU Member States to IIASA for the preparations of the revision of the EU Emission Ceilings Directive in 2005.

The emission scenarios have been developed with IIASA's Greenhouse and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (www.iiasa.ac.at/gains), which constitutes an extension of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model (www.iiasa.ac.at/rains) to greenhouse gases.

All scenarios suggest for the EU-25 a significant decline of agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and future years, mainly as a consequence of declining cattle numbers due to productivity increases in milk and beef production and more efficient application of fertilizers.

For the first scenario (i.e., CAFE projections reflecting the impacts of the Agenda 2000 CAP reform and the Nitrates Directive), an 11-13 percent decline of emissions from the EU-25 is estimated for the period 1990 to 2010, depending on the calculation methodology. The changes in livestock numbers and fertilizer use implied by the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and the EU sugar reform would reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions further by approximately four percentage points. Based on the national projections of livestock numbers and fertilizer use as provided in 2005 by the Member States for the NEC revision, agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gases are computed to decline by approximately 16 percent up to 2010.

These trends show significant variations across Member States. Emissions from the old Member States (EU-15) are calculated to decline by between 7 to 13 percent, depending on the agricultural scenario and calculation method. For the new Member States (NMS-10), reductions between 32 and 35 percent are estimated.

More than half of these reductions have occurred between 1990 and 1995, mainly due to the structural changes in the New Member States. Scenario 1 results in four percent additional emission reductions between 1995 and 2010, while the Mid-term CAP review Scenario 2 and the national projections suggest an eight percent further decline by approximately two percentage points.

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