The role of age-structured education data for economic growth forecasts

Crespo Cuaresma, J. & Mishra, T. (2011). The role of age-structured education data for economic growth forecasts. Journal of Forecasting 30 (2) 249-267. 10.1002/for.1171.

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Abstract

This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross-country data of 65 countries over six 5-year periods (1970-2000) and consider specifications chosen by model election criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in-sample and out-of-sample goodness of fit and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts systematically. In particular, the results are very promising for improving economic growth predictions in developing countries.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Economic growth; Education data; Forecasting; Adaptive regression; Bayesian model averaging
Research Programs:	World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference:	Journal of Forecasting; 30(2):249-267 (March 2011) (Published online 16 December 2009)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:39
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9636

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