Modelling Standard Setting Decisions: An Illustrative Application to Chronic Oil Discharges

von Winterfeldt, D. (1978). Modelling Standard Setting Decisions: An Illustrative Application to Chronic Oil Discharges. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-027

Preview

Text RM-78-027.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

This research memorandum presents an illustrative application of a three decision maker, one stage decision model to the problem of setting chronic oil discharge standards. It is the third paper in a series dealing with decision models and their applications to standard setting. The first paper (IIASA, RM-78-5) describes the problematique of oil discharge standard setting faced by the UK and Norwegian governments with the growing oil development in the North Sea. The second paper (IIASA, RM-78-7) provides the formal background of a decision theoretic model which was developed to aid regulatory agencies in standard setting tasks. The present paper is a first attempt to apply this model to a real world standard setting case.

The paper took the UK standard setting problem as it arose in 1975 as its starting point. It first describes the regulation problem in terms of sources, amounts, and effects of chronic oil discharges from North Sea production platforms. Then it presents a three decision maker, one stage decision model for standard setting which encompasses the decision making of a regulator unit, a developer unit, and an impactee unit. The decision making of the developer unit is thought as being influenced by a standard through the possibility of detections of violations of the standard and subsequent sanctions. The decision making of the impactee unit is influenced by the operation and treatment decision of the developer unit. Each decision unit is modelled by a decision theoretic model including quantifications of uncertainties and values, determining optimal treatment responses to regulation alternatives, and utilities for all three units as a function of standards.

The application of the model is illustrative in character. Although some of the data used in the model were collected during two field studies in the UK and Norway, many quantifications are still hypothetical in the sense that they are not real assessments by the experts and decision makers, but rather reflect the author's perceptions of the decision maker's and expert's opinions and evaluations. Nevertheless the model results provide some basic insights in the standard setting problem for chronic oil discharges.

Actions (login required)

View Item