Does Selection of Mortality Model Make a Difference in Projecting Population Ageing?

Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 & Ediev, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7503-5142 (2014). Does Selection of Mortality Model Make a Difference in Projecting Population Ageing? IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-14-012

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Abstract

In developed countries where fertility levels are low for a considerable time, assessing future ageing depends to a large extent on our vision of future developments in mortality reduction. In most population projections mortality reduction is implemented via life expectancy increases. Different scenarios of future changes in life expectancy have been developed in this respect. However, as we show in this paper, the selection of models that translate life expectancy into age-specific mortality rates may be of great importance for projecting the age composition of future population and especially ageing. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the sensitivity of different indicators of ageing in respect to the selection of mortality model. For a given level of life expectancy at birth the selection of different models may lead to different levels of life expectancy at age 65 comparable to those obtained in medium and high variants scenarios for life expectancy at age 0 (for example projections prepared by Eurostat). The prospective old-age dependency ratio (POADR), a recently introduced indicator of ageing where the threshold age of being considered old is not static but changes with improvements in life expectancy, is particularly sensitive to different translation models. Our results imply that researchers of population ageing should be as careful about their choice of models of age patterns of future mortality as they usually are when selecting life expectancy scenarios.

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