Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Kriegler, E., Petermann, N., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Schwanitz, V.J., Luderer, G., Ashina, S., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Kitous, A., Mejean, A., Paroussos, L., Sano, F., Turton, H., Wilson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566, & van Vuuren, D.P. (2015). Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (Part A) 45-61. 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020.

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Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

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