Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., et al. (2020). Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. bioRxiv (Preprint) 10.1101/2020.04.14.031716.

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Abstract

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

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