Climate change adaptation through robust land use planning: two-stage stochastic optimization for risk-informed decision making

Ermolieva, T., Havlik, P. ORCID:, Kahil, T. ORCID:, Balkovič, J. ORCID:, Skalský, R. ORCID:, Ermoliev, Y., Knopov, P., Borodina, O., et al. (2022). Climate change adaptation through robust land use planning: two-stage stochastic optimization for risk-informed decision making. In: Mathematical modeling, optimization and information technologies", international scientific conference. pp. 52-56 CEP USM. ISBN 978-9975-159-03-6

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Uncertainty and variability of climate changes are key challenges for adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, the decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex-ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed; and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative exante and adaptive ex-post decisions within a single model. The paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning in the condition of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between the decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and uncertainty with perspectives of learning about uncertainty. The two-stage anticipative and adaptive risk-informed decision-making with safety constraints induces risk aversion characterized by quantile-based Value-atRisk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex-ante and ex-post costs and the shape of uncertainty 61 determines the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex-ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, land management technologies, and natural resource utilization.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services (AFE)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Water Security (WAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 28 Nov 2022 11:25
Last Modified: 28 Nov 2022 11:25

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