Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries

González-Leonardo, M., Potančoková, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6115-5952, Yildiz, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6192-0634, & Rowe, F. (2023). Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries. PLOS ONE 18 (1) e0280324. 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324.

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Project: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig, H2020 870299)


Previous studies have examined the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility. However, little is known about the effect of the pandemic on constraining international migration. We use Eurostat and national statistics data on immigration and ARIMA time-series models to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows in 15 high-income countries by forecasting their counterfactual levels in 2020, assuming no pandemic, and comparing these estimates with observed immigration counts. We then explore potential driving forces, such as stringency measures and increases in unemployment moderating the extent of immigration change. Our results show that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. Yet, significant cross-national variations exist. Australia (60%), Spain (45%) and Sweden (36%) display the largest declines, while immigration decreased by between 15% and 30% in seven countries, and by less than 15% in four nations where results were not statistically significant. International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements exhibit a relatively strong relationship with declines in immigration, although countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closings and unemployment show no relationship with changes in immigration.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Population and Just Societies (POPJUS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Multidimensional Demographic Modeling (MDM)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Migration and Sustainable Development (MIG)
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Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 23 Jan 2023 16:56
Last Modified: 23 Aug 2023 11:57
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18580

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