Climate Solutions Explorer - downscaled country-level IAM scenarios

Sferra, F., Fricko, O. ORCID:, Byers, E. ORCID:, Werning, M., Krey, V. ORCID:, Riahi, K. ORCID:, & van Ruijven, B. ORCID: (2023). Climate Solutions Explorer - downscaled country-level IAM scenarios. 10.5281/zenodo.7971573.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)


The Climate Solutions Explorer website maps and presents information about mitigation pathways, avoided climate impacts, vulnerabilities and risks arising from development and climate change.

The Mitigation (and Summary) Dashboards present mitigation information, i.e. emissions, energy and carbon sequestration, for over 200 countries and 10 regions. To present data for all countries, Integrated Assessment Model runs from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model have been downscaled by using a methodology described in Sferra et al. 2021 [1]. The algorithm produces a range of pathways consistent with the underlying IAM-results, based on criteria such as historical data, planned capacities, country-available resource in the form of supply cost-curves, quality of governance as well as regional benchmarks based on IAM results. The data is provided from 2020 to 2070, for a limited set of variables used on the website.

The scenarios included are:

Current Policies: Current Policies scenarios here are based on the implementation of national mitigation targets implemented by country without any further strengthening of action. Expected to lead to 2.7 °C by 2100. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_CurPol_T45 scenario.
NDCs Delayed Action to 2030: Assumes trajectory based on the implemented NDCs until 2030, and then reduces emissions typically in line with a globally 2°C by 2100. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_NDC2030_T45 scenario.
Glasgow Pledges: "Glasgow Pledges" scenarios here are based on the pledges made by countries at the 2022 COP26 Glasgow Summit, and represent increased ambition, likely taking the world closer to below 2°C in 2100, but still some distance away from the aspirations of 1.5°C of the Paris Agreement. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_Glasgow scenario.
Glasgow Pledges+: "Glasgow Pledges+" scenarios drops the NDC pledges and expands mid-century strategy pledges to net-zero for all countries and regions. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_GlasgowP scenario.
Glasgow Pledges++: "Glasgow Pledges++" scenarios here aims at filling the gap between national mid-century strategies and the 1.5/2 °C global scenarios. This scenario builds upon the Glasgow+ scenario and anticipates the action (net-zero target year defined for each region) in 5 or 10 years (depending on the model’s time steps). The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_GlasgowPP scenario.
[1] Sferra, F. et al. 2021. Downscaling IAMs results to the country level – a new algorithm. IIASA Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

Item Type: Data
Additional Information: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate mitigation, integrated assessment model
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 18 Dec 2023 16:37
Last Modified: 18 Dec 2023 16:37

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