Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High‐Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability

Bandari, R., Moallemi, E.A., Szetey, K., Flanagan‐Smith, C., Hadjikakou, M., Marcos‐Martinez, R., Kharrazi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5881-2568, Sakic Trogrlic, R., & Bryan, B. (2023). Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High‐Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability. Earth's Future 11 (12) e2023EF003948. 10.1029/2023EF003948.

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Abstract

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is challenging given the complex interactions between different SDGs and their spillover effects. We developed a system dynamics model—the Local Environmental and Socio-Economic Model (LESEM)—to analyze and quantify context-based SDG interactions at the local scale using a participatory model co-design process with local stakeholders. The LESEM was developed for the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District in Victoria, Australia, to assist policymakers in analyzing local issues with a more integrated and holistic approach to sustainable development at the local scale. The process of participatory systems dynamics modeling facilitates integrated and strategic decision-making and can help local policymakers identify and quantify potential trade-offs and synergies that benefit multiple SDGs, which eventually leads local communities toward sustainability. We present an illustrative application of the model that quantifies SDG interactions across four high-priority SDGs, namely clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), zero hunger (SDG 2), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). We illustrate the use of the model in assessing key SDG indicator trajectories under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario from 2010 to 2050. Under the BAU, agri-food production increased despite a decline in water resource availability, with gains driven by intensification and increased agricultural productivity. This boosted local prosperity and reduced the amount of agricultural land required to meet future agri-food demand, thereby reducing pressures on terrestrial ecosystems and creating the space for ecological restoration and carbon storage in soils and biomass. However, agricultural intensification impacted water quality through increases in algal blooms and river salinity.

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