“Urban Exodus” During COVID-19in Mexico? UsingDigital Data to AnalyzeMedium-Term Pandemic Impacts on Internal Population Movements

González-Leonardo, M., Cabrera-Arnau, C., Neville, R., Nasuto, A., & Rowe, F. (2024). “Urban Exodus” During COVID-19in Mexico? UsingDigital Data to AnalyzeMedium-Term Pandemic Impacts on Internal Population Movements. OSF preprrints 10.31219/osf.io/e4au9. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Previous workdocumented a decline of internal population movements andan increase in outflowsfrom large cities to less densely populated areas during COVID-19 inGlobal North countries. However, the impact of the pandemic on levels and patterns of human mobilityacross the rural-urban hierarchyin the Global South is yet to be established.Lack of data with temporal and spatialgranularityhas preventedus fromassessing this research gap.Drawing on locationdata ofFacebook users, weanalyse howthe intensityand patternsof long-distancemovements(>100 Km) were affectedduring April 2020-May 2022 acrossdifferent population densitycategoriesin Mexico.Wefind a decline of40% in the total number of long-distancemovements duringApril-December 2020, anda systematic decrease of outflows and inflows across the rural-urban hierarchy. Unlike inthe Global North, outflowsfrom large citiesdid not increase. The largest drop of outflows and inflowsoccurred in large cities, decliningby 50%. Only specific flows increased during COVID-19, as those from large cities to certain towns, and intra-rural movements. The intensity and patterns ofinternal population movementsacross the rural-urban hierarchyhave progressively returned to pre-pandemic levels during 2021 and 2022, as has occurred in Global North countries. However, therecovery has been slower inthe largeMexicancities.

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