Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

Molina Bacca, E.J., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B.L., Karstens, K., Chen, D.M.-C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., et al. (2023). Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. Communications Earth & Environment 4 (1) e284. 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z.

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

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