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Vashold, L. & Crespo Cuaresma, J. (2024). A unified modelling framework for projecting sectoral greenhouse gas emissions. Communications Earth & Environment 5 (1) e139. 10.1038/s43247-024-01288-9.
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Abstract
Effectively tackling climate change requires sound knowledge about greenhouse gas emissions and their sources. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive, sectorally disaggregated, yet comparable projections for greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we project sectoral emissions until 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario for a global sample of countries and five main sectors, using a unified framework and Bayesian methods. We show that, without concerted policy efforts, global emissions increase strongly, and highlight a number of important differences across countries and sectors. Increases in emerging economies are driven by strong output and population growth, with emissions related to the energy sector accounting for most of the projected change. Advanced economies are expected to reduce emissions over the coming decades, although transport emissions often still show upward trends. We compare our results to emission projections published by selected national authorities as well as results from Integrated Assessment Models and highlight some important discrepancies.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Migration and Sustainable Development (MIG) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 25 Mar 2024 08:14 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Sep 2024 12:38 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19576 |
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