MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts

Awais, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6853-758X, Vinca, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3051-178X, Byers, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742, Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Boere, E., Burek, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6390-8487, Poblete Cazenave, M., Kishimoto, P.N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8578-753X, Mastrucci, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780, Satoh, Y., Palazzo, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8167-9403, McPherson, M., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, & Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515 (2024). MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts. Geoscientific Model Development 17 (6) 2447-2469. 10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024.

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Abstract

The integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM developed by IIASA is widely used to analyze global change and socioeconomic development scenarios within energy and land systems across different scales. However, to date, the representation of impacts from climate effects and water systems in the IAM has been limited. We present a new nexus module for MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM that improves the representation of climate impacts and enables the analysis of interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system. The module uses a spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational feasibility. It maps simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions with the energy and land systems. The results of this study inform on the transformation pathways required under climate change impacts and mitigation scenarios. The pathways include multi-sectoral indicators highlighting the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and the implications of global responses to limited water availability from different sources, suggesting possible shifts in the energy and land sectors.

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