The impact of natural hazards on migration in the United States and the effect of spatial dependence

Ton, M.J., de Moel, H., de Bruijn, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3961-6382, Botzen, W.J.W., Karabiyik, H., Friedrich, M., & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2024). The impact of natural hazards on migration in the United States and the effect of spatial dependence. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 1-19. 10.1080/09640568.2024.2359447.

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Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the effect of natural hazards on migration in the United States (US) and the importance of spatial dependence in such assessments. We use two measures of migration: migration rates and flows. The model for migration flows is estimated using the gravity model, whereas out- and in-migration rates are analyzed using the spatial Durbin model. Our results indicate there is a major and significant impact of economic damage caused by natural hazards on out-migration rates and outward migration flows. In the spatial Durbin model and in the gravity model, a $1,000 dollar damage per capita is associated with an increase in out-migration of 16.0% and 9.1%, respectively. However, when spatial dependence is not accounted for, the effect of natural hazards on migration is substantially overestimated: the coefficients are 1.5–2 times larger when spatial dependence is not considered.

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